Wielrenners kennen het begrip ‘vals plat’: een klim die visueel niet meteen als zodanig valt te onderkennen totdat kuitspieren en longen de eerste protesten doorgeven. Sir David Bruce Omand (1947) is, met meer dan een halve eeuw praktijkervaring, een icoon in de inlichtingen- en veiligheidswereld. A former Director of GCHQ and Cabinet Office security and intelligence coordinator turned academic, Omand is a well-qualified guide. These are helpful, as he does not wear his learning lightly: he nearly lost me in an early chapter that explained Bayesian logic with a fiendish-looking equation, and the most memorable quotes are from other world leaders.

Behalve voor GCHQ werkte Omand vele jaren voor het Britse ministerie van Defensie en was hij Permanent Secretary of the Home Office (1997-2000). Ormand then creates examples of using the analytical approach by applying the tools to world events and explains how the internet has made it easier for some to subvert arguments based upon structure, method and logic. It is very detailed, which is kind of what I would expect from someone of his calibre and experience in the role. Omand vertrouwt op de redelijkheid, de integriteit en de bekwaamheid van westerse overheden, met inbegrip van hun inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten.Instead, the work comes across more like a professional autobiography (of course of an individual who has reached the pinnacle within his industry). Zijn SEES-model laat in wezen zien wat analisten doen als zij ontwikkelingen en gebeurtenissen in de wereld onderzoeken. I found the section on {REDACTED} especially useful and the discussion of {REDACTED} quite interesting. While the book does look to the past, it is also very considerate of current and future challenges; the ten lessons are designed to combat the mistruths we see circulating on social media while also projecting an ideal solution to tackling issues of the digital age.

Apparently confirmatory evidence on the other hand can still be consistent with other hypotheses being true. I can imagine that the publishers were dazzled by the author's background and qualifications: a former director of GCHQ, seven years on the Joint Intelligence Committee, permanent secretary at the Home Office and a professor of war studies.Wederzijds vertrouwen en aantoonbare betrouwbaarheid zijn volgens Omand overigens ook onontbeerlijk voor het smeden van succesvolle partnerschappen in internationale inlichtingenkringen. Although we may rarely negotiate with rogue Serbian generals ourselves, he suggests that by thinking like intelligence analysts, we can all make better decisions in our own lives. Ook de Britse premier Boris Johnson valt overigens een kritische bejegening ten deel, vooral wegens diens rol in de Brexit-saga. De bestorming van Capitol Hill door Trump-aanhangers in Washington DC op 6 januari 2021 kwam te laat om te worden opgenomen in Omands boek, maar past naadloos in diens analyse. Anyone can follow these lessons but not everyone will be a great analyst in doing so, so what is it about the ways in which 'spies' think?

They gather information - often contradictory or incomplete - and, with it, they build the most accurate possible image of the world. Full of revealing examples from a storied career, including key briefings with Prime Ministers and strategies used in conflicts from the Cold War to the present, in How Spies Think Professor Omand arms us with the tools to sort fact from fiction, and shows us how to use real intelligence every day. Obviously this isn't a costless solution, risking a chilling effect on the online exchange of ideas that is the key benefit of the Internet. The third section seems to cover some miscellaneous thoughts that didn't fit in other places, but, importantly, it includes an application of the author's critical thinking process to dangers of social media for democracy. There are some really useful lessons in here, especially the final lesson on digital subversion and sedition and that seeing is not always believing, especially with the sophisticated.It also might work slightly better in a print edition, because a lot of material is covered in this modest length, and some of it is frightening. This seems important: in seeking to heal civil society of the sickness of disinformation, Sir David et al. When negotiating, nothing is agreed until everything is, so always set a best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA) – this is your backstop if proceedings collapse. It is just an extension of critical thinking and moreover they listen to their enemy or event information with utmost care. Hij put daarbij vooral uit zijn diepgaande inzicht in de werking van de Angelsaksische ‘Five Eyes’-gemeenschap.